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In areas around the equator, natural climate cycles influence localized conflict and civil wars, according to a new study published in Nature. For example, countries in this region face double the risk of armed conflict breaking out during warm, dry El Niño years than during the cooler La Niña phase. So, the big takeaway is that heat equals conflict in these regions. This study is remarkable because it shines a light on a hotly contested climate-influence issue in the science community, and can help reinforce localized national security strategies.

As our readers know, we have been covering the impact of climate – mainly climate change – on national security. For example, the CIA’s Center on Climate Change and National Security focuses on the national security impact of phenomena such as desertification, rising sea levels, population shifts, and heightened competition for natural resources. The Center provides support to American policymakers as they negotiate, implement, and verify international agreements on environmental issues.

The reality is that weather is changing and it is altering conflict and security. The study from Nature fully reinforces how hot weather directly influences localized populations. We imagine we will be seeing much more about this issue in the future as we continue to face uncertain times when it comes the weather and climate.

Tags: Center on Climate Change and National Security, CIA, CIA’s Center on Climate Change and National Security, Climate and Civil Wars, climate change and national security, National Security and Climate Change, Nature Magazine and Climate